All eyes in the markets are on the interest rate decisions of central banks

While the continued positive perspective on the theme of technology and artificial intelligence-oriented growth in global markets supports the risk appetite, all eyes are on the monetary policy decisions to be taken by the Central Bank in the country and the European Central Bank abroad. While concerns about geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to have an impact on pricing, the message that artificial intelligence expenditures will continue, taken from the balance sheets announced by major technology companies in the USA, has kept investors' risk-taking tendency alive. The second quarter balance sheets of US technology companies announced after the market close indicated that artificial intelligence investments will continue.

While Alphabet stands out with strong revenue and profit growth, IBM announced that it will increase its investments in artificial intelligence and automation despite limited revenue growth. On the other hand, although Tesla's second quarter revenue increased on an annual basis, its net profit decreased, revealing that the pressure on the company's profitability continued. As these developments fueled optimism towards artificial intelligence and technology, rises were noticeable on the Asian side, led by the semiconductor sector.

The Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. On the geopolitical side, maintaining the warmth of military activity in the Middle East is at the forefront as a factor limiting risk appetite. Concerns remain that geopolitical risks may spread to other important trade routes as well as the Strait of Hormuz due to the moves of the US and Iranian forces in the region.

In his post on his social media account, US President Donald Trump stated that if Iran fires a missile, rocket, unmanned aerial vehicle or other weapon at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will bomb a bridge or power plant in or near Tehran. Pointing to the conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, "We do not need the Strait of Hormuz, but we have to do what is necessary. We cannot allow Iran to have nuclear weapons.

he commented. While supply concerns on the energy side continue with these developments, the barrel price of Brent oil rose to 92.4 dollars, reaching the highest level since June 11. Analysts stated that oil prices, which tend to increase again, raise concerns that they may trigger inflationary pressures, and that this situation has broadened the interest rate increase expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the pricing in money markets, the probability that the Fed will increase the policy rate to 3.75-4.00 percent at its September meeting has increased to 98 percent.

In the bank's forecasts, the probability of an additional interest rate increase at the December meeting is priced at 68 percent. In light of these developments, the US 2-year bond interest, which is sensitive to interest rates, rose to 4.32 percent yesterday and tested the highest level since February 14, 2025, and stabilized at 4.31 percent on the new day. After increasing by 3 basis points to 4.66 percent yesterday, the US 10-year bond interest rate is now at 4.67 percent, the highest level in the last 2 months.

While the dollar index maintains its stance at 101 levels, the ounce price of gold, which has been on the rise since the beginning of the week due to the effect of global trade tensions, finds buyers at 4 thousand 121 dollars, with a decrease of 0.2 percent due to the interest rate increase expectations for the Fed and the effect of rising bond interest rates. The barrel price of Brent oil is at 92 dollars with an increase of 1.5 percent. Looking at the balance sheet details on the corporate side, Alphabet's revenue in the second quarter of the year increased by 24 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching 119.8 billion dollars.

The company's net profit increased by 298 percent in the same period, reaching 112.1 billion dollars. Alphabet made a net profit of $28.2 billion in the second quarter of last year. IBM also announced its balance sheet for the April-June period of 2026. Accordingly, the company's revenue in the second quarter of the year increased by 1 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching 17.2 billion dollars.

The company's net profit decreased by 1 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, falling to 2.17 billion dollars. Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chief Executive, stated that they are taking steps to accelerate the company's revenue growth and profitability, increase efficiency throughout the company through automation with artificial intelligence, and intensify investments to rapidly commercialize innovation. On the other hand, the net profit of the US electric car manufacturer Tesla decreased by 5 percent on an annual basis in the second quarter of this year to 1.11 billion dollars.

The company's total revenue increased by 26 percent on an annual basis in the second quarter, reaching $28.2 billion. Tesla earned $22.5 billion in revenue in the same period of 2025. Following the financial results announced by the mentioned companies, Alphabet's shares fell approximately 3 percent in after-market transactions, as the company announced that it would increase capital expenditures. With these developments, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.14 percent and the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.57 percent, while the Dow Jones index remained flat.

Index futures contracts in the USA started the day negatively. While European stock markets followed a positive trend yesterday, the monetary policy decisions to be announced by the ECB today became the focus of investors. In addition to the decisions the ECB will take today, ECB President Christine Lagarde's assessments regarding the inflation outlook, energy prices and geopolitical risks are expected to be decisive on the direction of European markets.

Analysts stated that pricing in money markets indicates that the ECB will keep interest rates constant at today's meeting. Concerns that the tension in the Middle East will increase energy prices again are among the factors in the focus of the markets, while the spread of recovery in technology stocks increased the risk appetite in the region. According to data released today in the region, annual inflation in England was below expectations of 2.6 percent in June, at 2.7 percent.