Senators Urge CFTC to Ban Disaster Betting Markets

The letter, issued Monday, cites Polymarket's January 2025 bets on Los Angeles wildfires and another site offering simulated bets on California fires. "Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities' suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit, the senators wrote. The letter warns that such markets could incentivize arson, citing state and local fire officials.

It comes as wildfires burn across the Pacific Northwest; Spokane County authorities arrested an arson suspect Tuesday, with hundreds of buildings destroyed and a quarter of Spokane's population evacuated. Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the company bans wildfire markets "because they create perverse incentives, while Polymarket's spokesperson defended the practice, saying people "come to Polymarket for information" and that removing markets "makes the most accurate information less accessible. UC Berkeley professor Michael Gollner called such markets "a perverse incentive for arson, and Riva Duncan of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters said her community is "pretty disgusted" by betting on tragedy. The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment.