Taiwan's Population Is Projected to Fall Below 20 Million in 2045, Dropping to 19.98 Million

From 2037, more than half of the working-age population is projected to be aged between 45 and 64, signaling the end of an era when the economy could rely on a relatively large labor force. The shift threatens to challenge Taiwan's growth model, which depends on a broad manufacturing workforce and a growing supply of highly skilled workers to support its semiconductor and artificial intelligence industries. A shrinking pool of workers could make recruitment increasingly difficult, while a growing elderly population would add pressure on social spending and public finances.

The projections also point to a deeper demographic problem — Taiwan is not only losing its population, but failing to replenish it, the council said. It lowered its long-term fertility assumptions after the fertility rate fell to a record low 0.695 last year, significantly below previous estimates. The number of women aged 20 to 49 has declined since peaking in 2005, while the proportion of married women in that age group has also fallen.

The shrinking pool of potential mothers is making a sustained recovery in births increasingly difficult, it said. Taiwan's population is projected to fall below 20 million in 2045, dropping to 19.98 million. People aged 65 or older are expected to account for 37 percent of the population, while the working-age population would shrink to 57.9 percent and children to just 5.2 percent, the council said.

By 2075, the imbalance would be even more pronounced, with older people projected to comprise 52.9 percent of the population, working-age people 42.3 percent and children 4.8 percent, it said. the number of children and elderly people relative to those of working age — is projected to rise from 55.2 dependents for every 100 working-age people to 136.6 by 2075, the council said. The potential support ratio is expected to fall below one, suggesting less than one working-age person for every person aged 65 or older, it said.

The government is preparing the economy for a permanently smaller workforce. It has established a population strategy task force, and in May launched 18 measures covering childbirth support, childcare, education, workplace policies and housing. Additional policy packages would target elderly people, talent development across all age groups and the recruitment of overseas talent, the council said.

For businesses, the implications extend beyond hiring. Companies are likely to face greater pressure to raise labor force participation among elderly people, attract workers from overseas, and accelerate automation and productivity gains. In a separate development, China deployed a record number of coast guard, scientific research and other ships near Taiwan's waters last month, the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) said, as Beijing dials up pressure on Taipei.

The coast guard warned of an increasingly severe situation, as analysts say the increased activity is part of China's bid to map the region for submarine warfare. The number of Chinese ships detected around Taiwan proper soared to a record 244 last month — an average of nearly eight every day, official data showed. That compares with 55 ships detected in June and 30 in May, and 58 in July last year.

Additionally, a fire and subsequent explosion in a residential area in Tainan early yesterday injured 15 people and damaged 68 homes, the Tainan City Fire Bureau said. The bureau said it received a report at 1:12am yesterday that a pile of waste in a vacant lot in Annan District's Haidian Road had caught fire and exploded, adding that it dispatched 144 firefighters and 53 firetrucks to battle the blaze and evacuate nearby residents. It took more than four hours to extinguish the fire, it said.

The incident damaged 11 privately owned vehicles, as well as eight fire engines, one ambulance and two disaster. demonstrates the US’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.