CIA Analysts Have Long Questioned Whether Putin's Advisers Have Given Him Honest Assessments of the War's Trajectory

CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a secretive visit to Moscow this week to privately deliver a bleak assessment of Russia's war against Ukraine and urge the Russians to strike a deal before their military and economic situation deteriorates further, current and former officials said. Ratcliffe delivered the message to Alexander Bortnikov, head of Russia's FSB intelligence service, and made no threats about potential consequences if Russian President Vladimir Putin ignores the assessment and continues fighting. CIA analysts have long questioned whether Putin's advisers have given him honest assessments of the war's trajectory.

The CIA has maintained communications channels with the FSB and Russia's foreign intelligence service, the SVR. Officials said Ratcliffe's channel with Bortnikov runs parallel to separate channels that US President Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, have established with other senior Putin advisers. Some officials hoped Putin, a former intelligence officer himself, would view a message from the CIA director as more urgent and credible than communications through normal diplomatic channels.

For much of last year, Trump and some top advisers appeared to believe a Russian battlefield victory over Ukraine was inevitable due to Russia's larger population and nuclear arsenal. But the Russians have suffered massive losses, and their battlefield gains have stalled. It is not clear whether Ratcliffe's message presaged any change in US policy toward Russia or Ukraine.

Ratcliffe's visit was the latest Trump administration effort to breathe new life into stalled negotiations. It has become increasingly clear that Ukraine is not going to give up its fight in the east, even with reduced US military support. Given the bleak military and economic reality for Russia, Ratcliffe told Bortnikov he believed it was time for Moscow to engage in serious negotiations to end the war.

Since Trump's return to office, the United States has scaled back military support to the Ukrainians, forcing them to rely more heavily on European allies. The CIA has maintained its close intelligence partnerships with the Ukrainians, which began more than a decade ago. The private message echoed some of Ratcliffe's public statements.

Last month, he spoke pointedly about Russian troop losses and Moscow's inability to advance on the battlefield, noting that the life expectancy of a Russian soldier on the front lines was less than 35 minutes. He added that Russia had gained only about 1 per cent of Ukraine's total territory in the 18 months since he became CIA director, a development he attributed to Ukraine's "mastery" of drone technology. Before meeting Bortnikov, Ratcliffe spoke with his Ukrainian counterparts, assuring them he would be exploring Russian positions, not making concessions on behalf of the Ukrainians.

European diplomats believe there may be an opening to secure a peace agreement in the coming winter months, given the largely stalled Russian offensive in the Donbas region and Ukraine's ability to impose deep costs with drone warfare. Some European officials have pressed the Trump administration to add a national security official to the mix of officials pressing the Russians for a peace deal. The Ukrainians have long viewed Witkoff and Kushner as too close to the Russians.

They view Ratcliffe, a long-time Russia hawk, as a potentially more neutral mediator. Trump has repeatedly used Ratcliffe as a messenger. In January, he became the first cabinet-level official to visit Venezuela after US special operations forces seized President Nicolás Maduro.

In May, he travelled to Cuba, giving its leaders a bleak assessment of the Cuban economy in the face of a US oil blockade. Direct contacts between US and Russian spy chiefs have been sporadic in recent years. In November 2021, William Burns, CIA director in the Biden administration, met face to face in Moscow with Bortnikov and other top Russian officials to warn Putin against launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A year later, in November 2022, Turkey hosted a face-to-face meeting in Ankara between Burns and Sergei Naryshkin, leader of Russia's foreign intelligence service.