Heathrow Expansion Would Take Thousands of Jobs From Other UK Regions, Report Finds

Airports in England and Wales are likely to lose millions of passengers if third runway goes ahead, DfT economic paper shows Expanding Heathrow airport will take thousands of jobs from other regions of the UK, including almost 10,000 from the West Midlands alone, according to an analysis of the government’s own forecasts. An economic paper published by the Department for Transport last month shows that airports in England and Wales are likely to lose millions of passengers if Heathrow builds a third runway, in a significant blow to regional jobs. Birmingham airport alone is set to lose out on 7.5 million passengers a year by 2050 – a decrease that equates to about 9,500 jobs foregone at the airport and in its supply chain, according to economists.

The findings could cast further doubt over the political support for the expansion, a little over a week after Andy Burnham became prime minister. The previous chancellor, Rachel Reeves, was a vocal champion of the plans for a third runway; while Burnham has said too much infrastructure spend goes on the south of England and has promised to rebalance spending with a No 10 North. The New Economics Foundation (NEF) said the report showed that the jobs created at Heathrow would primarily represent jobs displaced from around the country.

Its analysis of DfT modelling suggested that by 2050, 15,200 aviation jobs that would otherwise accrue in the regions, and 6,400 jobs at other London and south-east airports, would go to Heathrow instead. However, the government said that the NEF analysis was focusing on a limited period and insisted that Heathrow expansion would bring benefits nationwide. The report for the DfT followed the launch of a consultation on the Heathrow expansion national policy statement, which MPs must approve to build the third runway.

DfT modelling published alongside it also confirms that the overall economic boost could be a fraction of what ministers had hoped. Reeves had championed Heathrow’s plans in the name of economic growth but the impact report says that the overall GDP impact would be only up to 0.05% per year. A separate DfT publication casts further doubt on whether the whole nation would feel the benefit of expansion – one of the four tests set down by government for approving the scheme.

The peer review for the DfT of its GDP analysis states: “In my view, it would be erroneous to claim a broad distribution of the gains from Heathrow to regions on the basis of the modelling. Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the NEF, said: “With every new release of data, Heathrow’s proposed third runway is looking less like a plan for growth and more like a plan to move jobs and investment to London and the south-east. The third runway will take spending out of the places that need it most – anathema to what Burnham stands for.

“As the GDP case for expansion has evaporated, and the environmental damages will be significant, it’s unclear why this is proceeding. The winners from the scheme are the foreign shareholders who, as things stand, will be gifted a guaranteed return in exchange for taking on minimal private risk. The government said that the aviation industry would grow and the NEF analysis was misleading.

A DfT spokesperson said: “This analysis doesn’t factor in the potential for over 60,000 local jobs that Heathrow expansion will bring. The benefits will be felt across the UK, with up to 40% of the £2.6bn boost to the economy outside of London and the south-east. “In fact, by 2055 when the expansion is in full swing, passenger numbers at Birmingham airport are forecast to almost triple in size, leading to more local jobs. Thomas Woldbye said that the economic models used by government did not capture all the benefits, including £150bn in trade.”””””