The UN Trade and Development Has Projected That the Global Artificial Intelligence Market Will Reach $4.8 Trillion by 2033, Warning

The agency said this threatens to erode the low-cost labor advantage that many developing economies rely on for growth and poverty reduction. In a new report titled "Ensuring AI Benefits Everyone Is Key to Development in the Global South, UNCTAD noted that the projected market size is roughly equivalent to Germany's economy, indicating a 25-fold increase in just 10 years. The report identified capabilities and international arrangements needed to prevent AI from widening existing development gaps.

UNCTAD highlighted that about 65 percent of people in least developed countries currently remain offline, putting the technology out of reach from the start. It also stated that 118 countries, mostly in the global south, are absent from major AI governance platforms, meaning norms on safety, transparency and accountability are being written without them. "These are not just technical gaps.

They're human development gaps affecting livelihoods, public services and countries' capacities to meet their citizens' needs, the agency said. However, UNCTAD stressed that AI's rapid expansion is already affecting everyday life, citing AI-powered mobile apps that help rural health workers interpret symptoms where doctors are scarce, adaptive learning platforms that personalize lessons for students in under-resourced schools, and AI models that forecast floods, droughts and crop failures in climate-vulnerable regions. "But these gains aren't automatic." They depend on choices about who builds the technology, whose data train it, and who gets a say in how it is governed, UNCTAD added.

The agency pointed out that a small group of economies and around 100 firms control the bulk of AI research, patents and computing power. Fewer than one third of developing countries have a national AI strategy, and among least developed countries, the figure is just 12 percent. UNCTAD underscored that AI can deliver the greatest human development impact in agriculture, primary healthcare, disaster management and public administration.

Success depends on three interdependent factors: infrastructure such as electricity, broadband and computing; locally relevant data; and workforce skills. For most developing countries, the realistic entry point is adapting existing or open-source models to local conditions rather than building proprietary systems. UNCTAD advocated for global cooperation, prescribing a public disclosure mechanism for AI similar to the environmental, social and governance (ESG) framework, a global shared facility for equitable access to AI infrastructure, and open data and open-source models to broaden access to knowledge and resources.

In July 2026, Nigeria emerged as the leading African country in the second edition of the Global Index on Responsible AI (GIRAI), ranking 38th globally and number one in Africa with an overall index score of 45.93. UNCTAD is a permanent intergovernmental body established by the UN General Assembly in 1964, supporting developing countries to access the benefits of a globalized economy more fairly and effectively. It also recommended sharing AI knowledge and resources, especially through South-South cooperation, to strengthen developing countries' capacity to seize AI benefits and address common challenges. UNCTAD noted that aligning these efforts with national development plans, and treating data governance as central to readiness, separates countries that capture AI's gains from those where the technology remains confined to urban centers. The report was filed by Ndubuisi Francis in Abuja.