I Write This Fourth Open Letter With a Simple Appeal to Your Conscience, Following Your Recent Statements on the Rehabilitation

Your Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, Good Afternoon, sir. I write this fourth open letter with a simple appeal to your conscience, following your recent statements on the rehabilitation of the stranded 4 dead refineries. Nigeria does not only suffer from shortage of new industrial investment.

We also possess an enormous stock of industrial capital already built, already paid for, repeatedly maintained and repeatedly rehabilitated — yet still not producing what it was designed to produce. Before committing another billion dollars to another rehabilitation programme, I respectfully ask your administration to reflect more deeply on what went wrong, why these assets became stranded, how much Nigeria has already committed to them, and whether repeating the same model is commercially rational. The most obvious place to begin is with the four government-owned refinery units.

The Four Dead Refineries. Nigeria's state-owned refineries have a combined installed capacity of approximately 445,000 barrels per day: Port Harcourt Old — 65,000 bpd; Port Harcourt New — 150,000 bpd; Warri — 125,000 bpd; and Kaduna — 110,000 bpd. Yet for many years Nigeria imported the overwhelming majority of the petroleum products consumed domestically.

The financial history therefore deserves serious attention. In 2021, the Federal Executive Council approved approximately $1.5 billion for rehabilitation of Port Harcourt. The same year, another approximately $1.484 billion was approved for Warri and Kaduna — about $897.7 million for Warri and $586.9 million for Kaduna.

Almost $3bn Of Major Refinery Rehabilitation Approvals In 2021 Alone. NNPC separately reported approximately N100 billion in refinery rehabilitation expenditure during 2021. But the recent spending is only part of the story. A House of Representatives record, based on information submitted by NNPC, stated that between 2010 and 2020 the three refinery companies incurred approximately N4.8 trillion in operating and running costs, with accumulated losses of approximately N366.5 billion.

It also recorded about N42.65 billion of rehabilitation projects between 2013 and 2019. A separate House motion in 2023 cited a much larger cumulative figure of N11.35 trillion allocated to refinery renovation from 2010 onward. That figure should be independently reconciled before being treated as audited expenditure — which is precisely why a proper forensic accounting is overdue. NNPC's 2024 annual report further states that Project Yield, a seven-year financing arrangement ultimately used for the Port Harcourt refinery EPC rehabilitation contract, had drawn approximately N1.4 trillion by 31 December 2024. This is no longer a maintenance issue.

It is a national capital-allocation question — and an opportunity-cost question. President, may I respectively ask, if you have ever stood inside the control room of one of our old refineries? It looks less like the control centre of a modern refinery and more like the set of a 1960s James Bond movie — enormous switches, rows of buttons, analogue instruments and ageing screens.

Much of this technology belongs to the world in which you were an 18-year-old young man. The only thing missing is the Bond villain sitting in the corner, but we all know the villains (various NNPC Managers) are not far away. Yet we continue discussing billions for rehabilitation, as though enough money can somehow turn yesterday's industrial architecture into tomorrow's competitive refinery.

President, At Some Point Rehabilitation Becomes Restoration Of A Museum. Nigeria does not need four expensive industrial monuments. It needs refineries that can compete in 2026 and beyond.