Party Has Shifted From Discussing Her Replacement to Seeking Her Secret Sauce, Nearly Two Years After She Took the Helm Following the 2024

YouGov polling from last month shows 38 percent of Brits think Badenoch is doing well as Conservative Party leader, up 23 points from October. Some 43 percent see her as decisive, and 40 percent regard her as competent. However, with only one in five Britons believing the party is ready to govern again — and facing a more popular adversary in No. 10 Downing Street in Andy Burnham — strategists are eyeing an autumn blitz putting Badenoch to the fore.

"Kemi is popular. We are trying to promote the rest of the shadow Cabinet to make sure that popularity rubs off on the rest of the party, said one Badenoch staffer, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record. So far, it hasn't worked.

"Badenoch's success has still failed to translate into any meaningful movement in the polls for her party, said Scarlett Maguire, founder of independent polling firm Merlin Strategy. "The Conservatives' mediocre polling numbers, still worse than when they lost the 2024 election, shows the extent to which they have lost trust in their brand. The party's first big set piece moment this autumn will come at its annual conference in Birmingham at the beginning of October.

Badenoch's performance at last year's gathering marked the beginning of her transformation as party leader, and her team hopes to repeat the trick by making this year's conference more Badenoch-focused. There will be less policy this year, according to one shadow minister familiar with the plans and also granted anonymity. "Last year was a bit scattergun.

There was a bit too much policy, trying to prove we had something to say. This will be about putting Kemi forward as an alternative to Andy Burnham, this person said. "People see Burnham as someone who blows with the wind a bit, so [we] want to push forward the theme that Kemi is someone who doesn't change her mind, is guided by a strong set of principles and isn't going to change just to be popular, the same shadow minister added.

Hot on the heels of party conference season will be the Burnham administration's first budget, penciled in for Oct. 28. Strategists hope it will give them a chance to promote the party's "sound" economic vision. It is Badenoch and not Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride who is "calling the shots" on economic strategy, according to another member of the shadow Cabinet.

"The economic direction of the party has to come from her, not from Mel, they said. Badenoch discussed how to shape a right-wing economic vision — in particular the challenge of keeping wealthy people from leaving the country — with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Monday, according to the Times. Though shadow ministers and advisors agree long-serving Conservatives like Stride will help give Badenoch credibility within the business community.

"We need to get to a point where we've got a real economic narrative. That's what Kemi's team are hoping will be the transformative thing, said the same shadow Cabinet minister. The mood in Tory ranks has also been bolstered by a difficult few months for Reform's Farage, who has faced questions over whether he properly declared donations.

MPs and strategists were delighted Farage spent his summer tied up in the Clacton by-election triggered by his own resignation in July, leaving Badenoch clear to be the main critic of the newly crowned Burnham. Tory MPs gleefully claim those who defected from their party to Reform are starting to look differently at the Reform UK leader. "The change in the Conservatives has been substantial, but there has also been a big change in Reform as well, the shadow Cabinet member said, pointing to reported splits in Reform over how to approach Farage and policy areas such as welfare spending.