Whatever He Does, It Is the Wrong Thing in Germany

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is returning from vacation to face what his own party and commentators describe as the most difficult weeks of his tenure, with his authority resting on two promises he cannot keep alone. After staying silent during his holiday and seeing his approval ratings drop, Merz visited the wildfire-affected Eifel region to speak about the climate crisis, but a snappy retort to hecklers turned into another communications failure. Behind the PR disaster lies a deeper problem of lost trust, doubts about his leadership, and a CDU torn between reform zeal and a reality check.

Particularly delicate is the pension reform, which Merz sold as a "Gesamtkunstwerk" (total work of art) but which is now being dismantled by members of his own ranks, while in eastern Germany hardly anyone wants to campaign for it and even loyal supporters nervously watch the credibility firewall. In the end, Merz has only two last chips on the table — pushing through reforms and ruling out any cooperation with the AfD; if one of them crashes, his chancellorship could be history faster than any chancellor-swap debate ever managed. Whatever he does, it is the wrong thing.

That is how the situation of the chancellor can be summarized at the start of what is likely a historic autumn. During his vacation and his near absence from political debate, his approval ratings fell again. Friedrich Merz stayed silent and lost.

One simply cannot not communicate. When he then returned with a visit to the wildfire area in the Eifel and finally spoke about the climate crisis and its consequences, hecklers and his slightly snappy reaction shaped the perception. Merz spoke and lost again.