Heavy and Thundery Bursts Are Possible in Türkiye

Rain is set to return across the UK this week, bringing a chance of thunderstorms and localised flooding after a summer of exceptionally dry and hot weather. The wet conditions will be welcome for parched regions, though forecasters warn much more rain is needed before drought conditions ease. While Monday will remain mostly dry, low pressure arriving from the south-west on Tuesday will bring showery conditions to parts of southern England and south Wales.

By Wednesday, downpours will become more widespread across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with Scotland likely to stay mostly dry. Heavy and thundery bursts are possible. From later on Wednesday until Friday, the threat of torrential downpours with hail and thunderstorms will increase.

The areas most at risk are southern England and Wales, where heavy rain falling on dry, hard ground may bring the risk of localised flooding. Wet weather is expected in most places at times between Tuesday and Friday, although amounts will vary considerably due to the showery nature of the rain. Although this week's rainfall will help river levels and soil moisture content, it will take time for catchments and reservoirs to fully recover.

Droughts tend not to end quickly after one period of rainfall. A drought will only officially end when rain, soil moisture, river levels and groundwater levels all return to normal conditions for the time of year. According to the British Geological Survey (BGS), "significant, cumulative rainfall over a period of time" is needed.

However, aquifers and groundwater stores have shown resilience throughout the current drought. Out of the 35 groundwater sites recently surveyed by the BGS across the UK, only eight (23%) are showing notably low levels. Despite the return of wet weather, warmer air pushed up from southern Europe will bring temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland to around 20C by Wednesday.

In England and Wales, 28 or 29C is possible towards the south-east. Midweek temperatures will be above average, though the heat is expected to be short-lived and unlikely to reach heatwave thresholds again before the end of August. Some computer models are hinting at higher pressure building into the second week of September, which may push warmer air towards the UK again, with the highest temperatures expected across southern England. The article also notes how a new era of heatwaves could shake up the school calendar.