Who is driving diplomacy in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and why?

A series of diplomatic consultations in Cairo underscores the Horn of Africa's growing strategic importance. Cairo, Egypt – A series of diplomatic consultations in Cairo involving Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea and a senior US envoy reflects growing efforts to coordinate approaches to security challenges in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. The discussions come as Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions reshape regional politics, Red Sea shipping remains under pressure, and countries reassess old alliances and security partnerships.

Few public details have emerged from the discussions. According to official statements, security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region was at the centre of the agenda. That broad description reflects how issues once viewed separately, Ethiopia’s expanding regional role, maritime security and competition for influence, are becoming increasingly interconnected.

The significance of the Cairo discussions lies less in what was said publicly than in the effort to coordinate diplomacy among Egypt, the United States and key Horn of Africa actors at a time of growing regional uncertainty. While the discussions appear to have included separate consultations rather than a single joint session, they nevertheless signalled a shared interest in coordinating approaches to regional security, Red Sea stability and broader geopolitical competition. For Egypt, however, much of that conversation still begins with Ethiopia.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute has dominated Cairo’s relationship with Addis Ababa for years. But Egypt’s concerns now extend beyond water security. Ethiopia’s pursuit of maritime access, efforts to strengthen regional partnerships and its growing role in the Horn of Africa have become part of Cairo’s broader regional calculations.

Cairo has long viewed developments involving Ethiopia through a national security lens. The Horn of Africa adds another dimension to that concern, particularly as competition over ports, coastlines and regional influence intensifies. For Egypt, the Red Sea is no longer only a shipping lane.

It has become an extension of its broader security environment, where trade, maritime access and regional politics increasingly overlap. Developments there matter not only because of geography, but because of the importance of global maritime routes and the strategic role of the Suez Canal. Somalia’s importance in this equation goes beyond its domestic challenges.

Its location gives it a strategic position near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and along major maritime routes. But its role in the current regional debate is also shaped by its dispute with Ethiopia over sovereignty and access to the sea. Ethiopia’s pursuit of maritime access has become one of the region’s most sensitive issues.

Addis Ababa views greater access to the sea as an economic and strategic necessity, while Mogadishu has opposed moves it sees as undermining Somalia’s territorial integrity. The dispute has reshaped diplomatic engagement across the region. Somalia’s concerns have drawn it closer to Egypt and other regional actors closely watching Ethiopia’s expanding role.

For Cairo, ties with Mogadishu provide an opportunity to strengthen its presence in a region where security partnerships are being reassessed. Eritrea adds another layer of complexity to the regional equation. With a coastline on the Red Sea and a long, complicated relationship with Ethiopia, Eritrea remains an important actor in any discussion about regional security.

Its interests do not always fully align with Egypt or Somalia, but its geography gives it strategic weight. For Cairo, maintaining ties with Eritrea and Somalia forms part of a broader effort to preserve influence in a region where access, security and political alignments are increasingly contested. The participation of a US envoy across the Cairo consultations added an international dimension to the discussions and underscored Washington’s continued interest in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.

Following separate meetings in Cairo with Somali and Eritrean officials, US President’s Senior Adviser for Africa Massad Boulos said on X that he had discussed with Somalia’s foreign minister “important issues of security and stability in the Horn of Africa”, including ways to promote regional stability and Somalia’s domestic political dialogue. Following his meeting with Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, Boulos said the two sides had explored opportunities to strengthen cooperation on trade, regional economic development and security, while underscoring the need to “work together constructively to address regional conflicts and advance lasting peace, stability, and prosperity in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.” For Washington, the Horn of Africa remains tied to familiar priorities: regional stability, counterterrorism and the security of one of the world’s busiest maritime routes. The Red Sea has become harder to ignore as disruptions to shipping and wider geopolitical tensions have drawn renewed international attention.