The Permanent Democratic Majority Has Arrived

In our increasingly diverse country, elections are a racial headcount. You’ve probably heard that Donald Trump assembled a “multiracial coalition” in 2024, inaugurating a historic “realignment” of American politics that will enable the GOP to continue winning elections in our increasingly diverse nation. It’s a deeply misguided reading of that election.

It’s also a dangerous delusion for Republicans. Racial diversity has made Democratic strongholds out of once-winnable cities like New York and states like California. It threatens to do the same in Texas and Georgia, both of which are now majority nonwhite.

Just look at the latest polling for this year’s midterms: White Texans and Georgians strongly prefer the Republican candidate for Senate, yet in each state, the Democrat is projected to win. The Texas race is admittedly close, but in Georgia, once a deep-red state, the incumbent Democratic senator could win by double digits. Many conservatives misperceive the unfolding political catastrophe because of the widespread impression that America remains split right down the middle between the two parties.