El Niño Strengthens Its Influence on the Monsoon, According to Ecmwf European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Sees the Footprint

The west coast and Central India may return the worst figures. The monsoon is holding firm over East and North-East India, with parts of North-West India also likely to see relatively good activity through August-end. Elsewhere, however, rainfall may remain subdued, allowing deficits to likely widen steadily.

The outlook is that a depression will form in quick succession over the north-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining coasts on Monday. Its location and projected track could confine the bulk of its rains to adjoining East and North-East India. Even this regional spell may fade by the end of August, leaving the country increasingly exposed to a widening rainfall deficit, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

On Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) located the depression near Kolkata, about 80 km west-south-west of Satkhira (Bangladesh), 160 km south-east of Bankura (West Bengal), and 180 km north-east of Baleshwar (Odisha). It is very likely to move to West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar until Tuesday. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall was forecast for Odisha and West Bengal on Monday and for Jharkhand on Tuesday.

Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh on Tuesday and for three days from Thursday, and over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura for seven days from Tuesday. The Himalayan foothills and adjoining West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh may also witness varying amounts of rainfall. Meanwhile, the lean rainfall trend could persist through September as El Niño strengthens its influence on the monsoon, per the ECMWF outlook.

In effect, India may already have seen the best of this year’s monsoon, with withdrawal expected to begin from North-West India around mid-September. The all-India deficit stood at 13 per cent on Sunday and is expected to deepen through September. East and North-East India, the worst-hit, is running a 27 per cent deficit, followed by the South Peninsula at 21 per cent.

North-West India has a 12 per cent deficit, while Central India remains relatively comfortable at just 1 per cent. Among individual meteorological subdivisions, Arunachal Pradesh has the largest shortfall at 39 per cent, closely followed by Assam and Meghalaya at 38 per cent each.