State Representative Monty Fritts Drew 25.6%, and 9% Were Undecided

In Tennessee's Republican gubernatorial primary, U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn leads U.S. Representative John Rose 34.5% to 31%, according to a late OnMessage poll of 800 likely voters conducted July 23-25 with a 3.5% margin of error. State Representative Monty Fritts drew 25.6%, and 9% were undecided. The race has tightened after Rose spent about $13 million of his own money on an aggressive late campaign.

Pollster Wes Anderson told The Tennessean, "The race has closed up dramatically, adding, "it's going to come down to whether Marsha can outrun the cheetah or the cheetah catches her. The momentum is clearly on Rose's side. Blackburn's campaign manager Abigail Sigler dismissed the poll, saying, Any pollster who won't release the full demographics is hiding something.

This is a desperate attempt by political consultants to get their candidate to invest even more than the $13 million of his own money he's already poured in. Marsha Blackburn is going to be the Republican nominee and then the 51st Governor of the state of Tennessee. The primary has been jolted by reports that Blackburn's Senate office faced a confidential Senate Ethics Committee review over alleged misuse of taxpayer-funded resources for campaign activities; her office denies wrongdoing and says the matter was resolved.

Blackburn holds structural advantages, including near-universal name recognition and more donor contributions, while Rose relies on personal loans. An internal Rose poll from June showed Blackburn ahead 44% to 29%, and a Blackburn internal poll from late July showed her up 42% to 25%. President Donald Trump, who won Tennessee by nearly 30% in 2024, has not endorsed in the primary.