El Niño Could Push Nearly 49 Million More People Into Acute Hunger by the End of Next Year, With an 81% Chance of a Very Strong Event

Pacific Ocean temperatures are on track to reach their highest levels since at least 1982, and if forecasts hold, it could become the strongest El Niño since 1950, triggering widespread droughts, floods and erratic rainfall. Based on an assessment of 45 vulnerable countries, the WFP estimates the number of people facing acute food insecurity could climb to about 274 million. Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with food insecurity projected to increase by 83% and nearly 75%, respectively.

Southern Africa, South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into acute hunger. "These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger, said Jean-Martin Bauer, director of the WFP's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service. Bauer noted global food supplies are entering the El Niño period in relatively good shape after strong harvests, but conflict in the Middle East and weather-related crop losses could drive up food prices.

The WFP also warned that funding cuts from the United States and Europe are making it harder to track emerging hunger crises, with household surveys dropping from about 1.1 million in 2024 to around 800,000 this year. "At a time when you have a risk like an El Niño, it is important to have high-frequency data collection, Bauer said, warning that weaker monitoring could delay responses. Current forecasts point to below-average rainfall across parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America and the Caribbean, while flooding risks are expected to rise in Somalia and neighboring countries.

Parts of South and Southeast Asia could face drought, disrupted monsoons and localized flooding. The WFP has already expanded anticipatory aid programs in 18 countries, reaching more than 1.3 million people this year with cash assistance and other support.