Kalshi Showed a Similar Bump, From 60.4 to 63 Percent

Darline Graham's odds of winning South Carolina's Republican Senate special primary ticked up on prediction markets after Monday night's debate, though polls show a fluid race. Graham, who has Trump's endorsement, stressed she is not a career politician and pledged to back the SAVE America Act, even ending the filibuster if needed. On Polymarket, her chance rose from 59.4 percent before the debate to 63.4 percent by 11:02 p.m. ET, with Norman at 19 percent and Fry at 17.4 percent.

Kalshi showed a similar bump, from 60.4 to 63 percent. Recent surveys vary: an Emerson College/Nexstar poll put Norman ahead at 22 percent versus Graham's 19, while a co/efficient poll had Graham at 30 percent, Fry at 16, and Norman at 15. A runoff is possible if no one clears 50 percent. Graham also benefits from incumbency and her late brother Lindsey Graham's network. During the debate, she said she stands 100 percent with Trump, criticized Democrats on border policy, and called for protecting Medicare and price transparency in healthcare.