Nigeria's Agricultural Sector and Economy Experts Have Raised Concerns Over the Latest Food Inflation Report Released by the National Bureau

They also picked holes in agric policies and practices that may have undermined productivity in the sector, while expressing divergent views over the NBS report on the direction of food inflation. According to the NBS, Nigeria's food inflation rate rose by 2.79 percentage points to 20.31 per cent in July, from 17.52 per cent in June, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase since March. The Bureau attributed the rise to price changes in commodities such as garri, crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger, and plantain flour, among others.

The experts question the accuracy of the underlying data collection methods. Meanwhile, a weekly market track by Vanguard AgroBiz at Mile 12 food market in Lagos in July showed price fluctuation in some commodities while others remained unchanged. A bag of garri, which sold for N30,000 on July 18, dropped to N25,000 by July 24. Tomato prices also fell within the period.

A basket of tomatoes from Cameroon sold for N90,000 on July 18, while one from Jos sold for N80,000. By July 24, a basket of tomatoes from Jos reduced to N65,000. Traders attributed the drop to early harvest and increased supply from South West farms. The influx also introduced cheaper alternatives from Ogun State, with small baskets selling between N18,000 and N40,000 for medium-sized baskets. Pepper and palm oil prices remained unchanged.

A small bag of pepper sold for N40,000 on both dates, while a 25-litre keg of palm oil held steady at N48,000. A bag of onions, however, dropped slightly from N140,000 on July 18 to N130,000 on July 24. Commenting on the development at a recent event in Lagos, Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Farm Credit NG, Mr. Afioluwa Mogaji, said that the NBS report has failed to reflect market reality. "I challenged Nigeria Statistics recently on television when they said inflation has gone up and they mentioned garri. Price of cassava has dropped by over 70 per cent.

Whoever gave them that data is not a field person, he said, insisting that garri ought not to be counted among items driving the inflation figure. He, however, acknowledged that while garri prices have not fallen side by side with cassava, the resulting margin presents an opportunity that value chain actors ought to explore. "The farmers are crying.

They need many of us to go into processing now. The processing facilities are down. On tomatoes, Mogaji noted that Adamawa State, which recorded about 50 per cent food inflation, had for years relied on tomato supplies from Cameroon, despite the two locations sharing similar climatic and production conditions, a scenario he said pointed to poor local leveraging of production timing rather than genuine scarcity.

He disclosed that a 2024 agreement reached with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture had helped cap the price of a basket of tomatoes at N50,000 nationally throughout 2025, describing it as a feat unachieved in 26 years, made possible by collaboration between government and the private sector. Mogaji called for greater knowledge-sharing among operators in the sector, lamenting that too many players work in isolation and fail as a result. He advised farmers and processors to identify and study individuals who have made notable progress in specific areas of the value chain.

He further advocated stronger political advocacy for farmers, saying that with sustained pressure, the sector could in future secure direct representation in government, given that politicians rely heavily on rural votes during elections. However, the immediate past Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr Muda Yusuf, agreed that the food inflation was on an upward direction in July but he tied the inflationary trend to broader public dissatisfaction with ongoing economic reforms, noting that food security remains one of the most visible gaps between policy intent and citizens' lived experience. To address this, Yusuf canvassed a shift away from viewing agriculture solely as farming, stressing the need for a transition from subsistence practices to a commercially integrated agricultural economy.

He advocated increased investment in agro-processing, so that raw produce such as cassava proceeds beyond the farm gate into finished, value-added goods. He maintained that while the government has a role in creating an enabling environment, private capital must drive the establishment and expansion of agro-allied industries. He said: Food inflation, as I have seen, is over 20 per cent.

And if you talk to some people, it is even higher based on what they experience practically. Many things that used to be affordable are now becoming out of reach. We have large land resources.

We have a large labour force. We have a big domestic market.