But Their Readiness Goes Beyond Budgets, Rooted in Decades of Assuming They Might Be Next

Eastern European states are outpacing their Western allies in preparing for a potential conflict with Russia, blending hefty defense budgets with innovative, whole-of-society strategies. At the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, members agreed to a 5 percent defense spending target, with Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, and Latvia—nations on or near Russia's border—closest to meeting it. But their readiness goes beyond budgets, rooted in decades of assuming they might be next.

Poland's defense spending is projected at 4.3 percent of GDP for 2025, followed by Lithuania at 4 percent, Latvia at 3.7 percent, Estonia at 3.4 percent, and Denmark at 3.3 percent. These small states, like Estonia with a population of just 1.34 million, have learned harsh lessons from history. All three Baltic states and Poland were occupied by the Soviet Union—the Baltics in 1940 and Poland in 1939—with the Baltics enduring Soviet rule until 1991, marked by deportations and Russification.

Poland was forced into the Soviet bloc until 1989. This history made them wary of Russia's intentions, even after independence in 1991. Estonia faced a massive cyberattack in 2007 after relocating a Soviet war memorial, with attacks traced to Russian IP addresses. They also watched Russia's aggression in Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. Western Europe, by contrast, saw Russia as a partner, with Germany relying on it for 52 percent of its gas in 2021. Germany's military shrank from 585,000 troops in 1990 to 177,000 in 2016, and the UK's army dropped 30 percent from 2000 to 2024. Many European nations ended conscription, leaning on NATO and the U.S. for security. The Baltics and Poland, however, joined NATO—Poland in 1999, the Baltics in 2004—and modernized their forces.

Latvia and Lithuania reinstated conscription in the 2010s and 2020s, with Lithuania seeing record volunteer numbers. They pushed for hard security guarantees, especially Article 5. Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, they've escalated plans, building a 950 km defense line with bunkers, dragon's teeth, and minefields, complementing Poland's East Shield program set for 2028. Poland aims to field the EU's largest army, second only to the U.S. in NATO. Their focus on modern tech and defending against shadow warfare targeting civilians sets a new model for defense. "total defense,"