He Is Keen to Make As Many Exceptions As the Limited Headroom in the Prison Estate Will Allow, the Guardian Understands

Andy Burnham is racing to prevent child rapists and other serious sexual abusers from being released early under the government's prison early release scheme, as urgent talks on which criminals could be exempted go down to the wire. Ministers have roughly 24 hours to decide which offenders can be freed early to ease prison overcrowding, with every exemption weighed against the risk of the criminal justice system collapsing. The prime minister halted the controversial plan to release thousands of killers, rapists and sex offenders in September — a measure designed to tackle critical prison overcrowding — during his second week in office.

He is keen to make as many exceptions as the limited headroom in the prison estate will allow, the Guardian understands. Burnham's focus follows ministers hearing concerns from victims' representatives and support services, who warned that failing to put safeguards in place for abuse victims would leave them particularly vulnerable. A review of the scheme is expected to conclude by the end of Monday to give the Prison Service time to prepare, with a final decision on exemptions still pending.

But ministers are acutely aware that if no action is taken, prisons will run out of space, while exempting some criminals is likely to trigger further calls for others to also remain behind bars, sources told the Guardian. Former justice secretary David Lammy, who brought forward the act that paved the way for the releases, previously warned that failing to implement it could leave no capacity across jails in England and Wales by November. The new justice secretary, appointed by Burnham on 20 July, is Alex Norris. accompanied by a significant expansion in electronic tagging of offenders — is still expected to take place this autumn with an initial group of about 700, despite warnings from probation officers of potential chaos.

It is likely to cause a headache for the new prime minister as he faces Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch in the House of Commons for the first time. A government source said: "If we don't take any action, we will run out of room – it's not sustainable at all. The development comes after the family of PC Andrew Harper expressed outrage that his killers may be eligible for early release.

His mother, Debbie Adlam, said the proposed inclusion of two of her son's killers – Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers – was "another letdown" for their family. New sentencing laws were passed under Keir Starmer's government to ease a looming prison overcrowding crisis that ministers said could seize up the criminal justice system. Victims' advocates are concerned that high prisoner numbers will limit the number of serious criminals who could be exempted.

Former safeguarding minister Jess Phillips, a vocal critic of the scheme, said it was right that exemptions were being considered but there needed to be "a whole system change with how victims and risk is managed as the sentencing review goes forward", which had to be carried out with victims' agencies, probation officers and police. Under the Sentencing Act 2026, which passed in January, from September some serious offenders will be eligible for release halfway through their sentences rather than two-thirds of the way through. Those convicted of less serious crimes can be freed after serving a third of their sentence instead of 40%.

The new law also restricts the use of short-term prison stays, which will be replaced with probation and community orders – a move that some critics have said will put pressure on an already overburdened probation service. Phillips said any review needed to examine not only the early release scheme but the presumption against short sentences. "Exemptions are an immediate safety crisis, but real in-depth work to make the situation better forever and be one based on risk and rehabilitation must be done, she said.

Claire Waxman, the victims' commissioner for England and Wales, met Norris on Wednesday, and she told the Telegraph she welcomed his acknowledgment that victims had been let down and she was "cautiously more hopeful" about progress on answering her concerns. But prison reform groups, government officials and politicians reacted angrily to Burnham's decision to pause the scheme, warning that abandoning measures to ease jail overcrowding could lead to the criminal justice system "collapsing under its own weight". Ciara Bergman, the chief executive of Rape Crisis England and Wales, said centres had been supporting scores of victims through the "distress and terror of finding out that their rapists and abusers were due to be released … or in some cases already had been".

She said: "Victim-survivors should never have been put in this situation, not least because so little is known about the factors which make some more like to offend than others, and how sexual violence offenders can effectively be managed and monitored in the community. A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said it was taking action to fix the prisons crisis, "caused by 14 years of Conservative neglect". "We are pulling every lever to protect the public and cut crime, they said, pointing to the building of new prisons, expanding tagging, strengthening community punishment and giving victims a say in offenders' licence conditions.