GIFT Nifty at 24,729 Signals a Sharp Gap-up Opening, With Focus on the RBI Monetary Policy Outcome

Global sentiment turned positive after crude oil prices fell, and domestic markets are expected to open firm despite confusion over the new CAS-based closing price system that caused wide variance. GIFT Nifty at 24,729 signals a sharp gap-up opening, with focus on the RBI monetary policy outcome. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said Indian equities are poised for a firm start, with improving global risk sentiment after optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement raised expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could gradually normalise.

WTI crude fell to a fresh low near $74 a barrel before stabilising around $75. GIFT Nifty futures traded above 24,700, above Nifty's previous close of 24,614. Asian markets traded sharply higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up more than 3% and South Korea's Kospi surging over 4%. Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Valuation, said the RBI is likely to hold the repo rate at 5.25% and retain a neutral stance, with the pause aimed at preserving policy flexibility. Inflation has emerged as a key concern, with CPI inflation rising to 4.38% in June 2026, food inflation at 5.32%, and WPI inflation reaching 9.87%.

Liquidity management is expected to remain central to the RBI's approach. Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst at Angel One, said the first weekly expiry under the new CAS system began uncertainly, with prices drifting lower before a sharp surge in the closing auction recouped almost all intraday losses. Investors remain cautious until there is clarity on the geopolitical situation.

Attention is on the RBI's MPC decision due this morning, with commentary on inflation, liquidity, growth, and policy outlook expected to be significant for banking and rate-sensitive sectors. FI Is extended their buying streak for a sixth session, with DII participation reinforcing the recovery. India VIX edged higher to 12.19. Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, said option chain data indicates a positive undertone, with maximum Put Open Interest at the 24,500 strike, followed by 24,300, and maximum Call Open Interest at 24,600, followed by 25,000. The Put-Call Ratio stands at 0.82, reflecting a mildly cautious setup.

Prices largely drifted lower throughout the session, as the market appeared to adjust for the previous day’s closing-auction spike. However, a sharp surge once again emerged during the closing auction, resulting in the index recouping almost all of its intraday losses.