Early Data Suggests He Would Be a Strong Contender

Pete Buttigieg told podcast host Steven Bartlett on The Diary of a CEO that he is "more inclined than not" to run for president in 2028, a shift from his past guarded answers. The former transportation secretary, who finished fifth in the 2020 Democratic primary, said fatherhood has changed his thinking; he and husband Chasten adopted twins in 2021. "That's changed all of my equations, he said. Early data suggests he would be a strong contender.

A Manhattan Institute poll (July 1-6) put him third at 13 percent, behind Kamala Harris (19 percent) and Gavin Newsom (15 percent). An Emerson College survey (July 19-20) had him first at 19 percent, ahead of Newsom (17 percent), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff (13 percent each). A Public Sentiment Institute poll of Michigan voters (July 25-29) gave him 24.2 percent, with Harris at 5.1 percent.

A University of New Hampshire poll (February) showed him leading at 20 percent with a 72 percent favorability rating. Not all polls agree: a UC Berkeley survey had Newsom ahead in California, with Buttigieg fourth at 11 percent. Prediction markets lag, with Polymarket favoring Newsom at 19 percent and Buttigieg in mid-single digits.

The primary is shaping up around anti-establishment sentiment, with Ocasio-Cortez touring with Bernie Sanders and progressive wins in primaries. Buttigieg has tried to occupy both lanes, praising Zohran Mamdani and calling himself a "Buttigieg Democrat. His 2020 rise—winning Iowa and finishing second in New Hampshire—echoes his current positioning.