Tomorrow or the Next Day

President Donald Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as early as Wednesday, as Iran and Oman inched toward an agreement on the critical waterway that could ease pressure on the global economy and potentially help end the war. The United States, along with Israel, launched the war on Feb. 28, citing goals including toppling Tehran’s government and ending its nuclear program, but the conflict has devolved into a fight over the strait as Iranian attacks on shipping halted traffic.

An agreement giving Iran authority over the strait would be seen as a major loss for the U.S. and a break with global norms, since the waterway, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas once passed, was an open international waterway before the war. Trump, under mounting pressure to end an unpopular war ahead of midterm congressional elections, told reporters traveling with him in California on Tuesday evening, “It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day.

A lot of progress has been made. Oil prices initially eased on hopes of a deal but later inched upward, with Brent crude around $80 per barrel on Wednesday. Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a draft deal to reopen the strait and are awaiting final approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, two regional officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

Khamenei is believed to have been wounded in the war's opening strikes and has not been seen in public since. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, portrayed the potential deal as a temporary solution tied to a collapsed June agreement between the U.S. and Iran, and said it would pave the way for resuming negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program. Earlier, they said the deal would have ships enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through an Omani-controlled route, with service fees charged for security and preserving the maritime environment.

The U.S. has strongly opposed any arrangement where Iran charges fees. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said the agreement with Oman is in the final stage” of drafting, and a joint statement will be issued if certain parties do not obstruct this process, apparently referring to the U.S. Even as hopes increased, attacks on shipping continued: the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed Wednesday they fired ballistic missiles toward a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea off the port city of Yanbu, part of a recent escalation threatening to reignite Yemen's civil war. On Tuesday, an Indian-flagged commercial ship sank in the Red Sea off Yemen after being struck by an explosive-laden boat, with Yemen’s coast guard rescuing the crew and no immediate claim of responsibility.